National Politics and Such

© Dr. Gary D. Lemmons, January 27, 2008

The Democratic Party’s episode of the South Carolina Primary, held yesterday, has, I believe, whittled the field of political candidates down to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.  John Edwards, who is a native South Carolinian, came in a distant third.  While he may hang on through the Florida primary and, perhaps even through “Super Tuesday”, the wise money realizes that this campaign is over for him.

While it was no surprise that Obama was victorious, his margin of victory over Hillary was significant.  It was fully anticipated that he would carry the black vote; however, it appears that he distanced Clinton by 27%.  That was something of a surprise as the Clinton machine has always held strong in African-American communities and among the black leadership.

What we have here folks is a political “horse race.”  It is conceivable that Obama and Clinton could battle it out in Florida and the “Super Tuesday” contests with neither one emerging as a clear winner.  That would take us into March with primaries in Texas, Ohio, Mississippi, and Rhode Island.

Now, consider this.  What if, after all the primaries, neither candidate has a majority of the delegate vote?  We could have the first brokered convention of a political party since 1968!

Things are just as uncertain on the Republican side.  While the campaign of John McCain has surged in recent days, things are likely not going to be as rosy for him in Florida.  Also, I do not believe that he will sweep “Super Tuesday.”  Too many of us are not fond of his support of the “Kennedy-Bush Illegal Alien Amnesty” proposal that was defeated last year.  Additionally, his “McCain-Feingold Act”, which guts free speech in political elections, is sure to come back and haunt him.

Mike Huckabee, the only candidate who supports the “fair tax”, is still viewed as a son of the evangelical Christian element of the party.  His social conservative views resonate with some, but others are troubled by his liberal views with respect to jail pardons for criminals.  Equally, his immigration policies are a bit suspect for some conservatives.

Florida is absolutely vital for Rudi Guliani.  His entire campaign strategy has been to lay low during the initial primaries in the traditionally conservative areas of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina; hope that no other candidate develops a trend, and then emerge a strong alternative in Florida.

The first part of Rudi’s strategy has worked.  Huckabee won Iowa, McCain won New Hampshire, and (in all actuality) Huckabee and McCain divided South Carolina.  Were Rudi to emerge as the clear winner in the Florida primary, his strategy would have worked and he would be a clear contender in the “Super Tuesday” fray on February 2^nd.

Again, thinking the unthinkable, it is possible that the Republican race could arrive at convention time without a clear winner.  The notion that both major political parties could have conventions that do what conventions are supposed to do…determine the best candidates for the nation’s top political office…instead of rubber stamping the decision of the primaries…is quite appealing to me.  Who knows, we may even see the return of the “smoke filled room”!